Geopolitics, Economic and Trade Wars and Their Impact on the African Economic Landscape

By Dr. Ruth Tembe

In recent times, geopolitics, economic and trade wars—particularly among major global powers—have increasingly shaped the global economic order. Rivalries such as the United States–China trade tensions, sanctions on Russia, disruptions in global supply chains, and the reconfiguration of trade alliances have had far-reaching consequences beyond the countries directly involved. Africa, though often not a direct participant in these conflicts, experiences significant spillover effects that influence its economic growth, trade patterns, and development prospects across regions.

At a continental level, economic and trade wars have created both risks and opportunities for Africa. On the negative side, slower global growth reduces demand for African exports such as oil, minerals, and agricultural commodities. Volatile commodity prices, higher inflation, and tighter global financial conditions also constrain African economies. On the positive side, shifting global supply chains and efforts by major economies to diversify sourcing have opened opportunities for Africa to attract investment, expand manufacturing, and strengthen intra-African trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Regional Shifts

In terms of regional shifts, North Africa is highly integrated with Europe and the Middle East, making it particularly sensitive to geopolitical tensions in those regions. Trade disruptions, energy price volatility, and conflicts have increased inflation and fiscal pressures, especially in energy-importing countries such as Morocco and Tunisia. However, energy exporters like Algeria have benefited from higher global energy prices during periods of geopolitical tension, supporting short-term growth and foreign exchange earnings.

West Africa is strongly affected by commodity price fluctuations, especially in oil, gas, cocoa, and minerals. Trade wars and global uncertainty weaken external demand and reduce foreign direct investment in some countries. At the same time, geopolitical realignments increase competition among global powers for access to West Africa’s resources, creating opportunities for infrastructure investment and strategic partnerships. Political instability in parts of the region, however, limits the ability to fully capitalize on these opportunities.

Southern Africa faces mixed impacts. Resource-rich economies such as South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia are vulnerable to changes in global demand for minerals driven by trade disputes and technological competition. Slower global growth constrains exports, while financial market volatility affects capital flows. Conversely, the global energy transition and geopolitical competition over critical minerals have increased demand for the region’s strategic resources, offering long-term growth potential if managed effectively.

Because Central Africa remains heavily dependent on extractive industries, it is particularly exposed to geopolitical and trade-related shocks. Fluctuations in oil and mineral prices directly affect government revenues and economic stability. Trade wars that reduce global demand can slow growth, while limited diversification and infrastructure gaps constrain the region’s ability to benefit from supply-chain shifts. Nonetheless, increased global interest in strategic minerals presents opportunities for investment and industrial development.

East Africa has shown relative resilience due to more diversified economies and strong intra-regional trade. While higher import costs for fuel and food—driven by geopolitical conflicts—have increased inflationary pressures, the region has benefited from growing services, agriculture, and light manufacturing sectors. Geopolitical competition has also supported investment in ports, logistics, and digital infrastructure, strengthening the region’s role as a trade and transport hub.

In conclusion, geopolitics and economic and trade wars can reshape Africa’s economic landscape in complex ways. While growth can become slow through reduced global demand, price volatility, and financial uncertainty, strategic openings for diversification, regional integration, and investment are also created. Africa’s long-term economic growth will depend on how effectively its regions leverage these shifts—by strengthening regional value chains, promoting industrialization, and using frameworks such as AfCFTA to reduce vulnerability to external geopolitical shocks.

Advantages of Global Trade Wars to Africa’s Economy

Although trade wars create global uncertainty, they also present several advantages for Africa’s economy:

1. Supply Chain Diversification Opportunities: As major economies seek alternatives to traditional suppliers, African countries can position themselves as new sourcing and manufacturing hubs.
2. Increased Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Geopolitical rivalry among global powers encourages investment in Africa’s infrastructure, energy, mining, and manufacturing sectors to secure strategic partnerships and resources.
3. Boost to Intra-African Trade: Global trade disruptions strengthen the case for regional trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), reducing dependence on external markets.
4. Higher Demand for Strategic Minerals and Energy: Trade and technology wars increase global demand for Africa’s critical minerals and energy resources, supporting export revenues.
5. Industrialization and Value Addition: Trade barriers elsewhere encourage local processing and manufacturing in Africa, helping economies move up the value chain.
6. Stronger Bargaining Power: Competing global powers give African countries greater leverage to negotiate better trade terms, financing, and technology transfers.

Overall, trade wars—if strategically managed—can accelerate Africa’s economic diversification, industrial growth, and regional integration.